A conference proceedings paper from the 1st International Electronic Conference on Entomology recently published in the MDPI journal features a new predictive model and its validation. The paper called "Generic Model to Predict the Outbreak of Insects in European Forests" presents a new generic model for predicting insect outbreaks in forests.

The four type of functions fi used in the model

Researchers Dorian Collot and Christelle Robinet of INRAE (France), built the model on different orders of European pests. The researchers have successfully parametrised the model on well-studied species of pests, and have adapted it to be able to predict outbreaks of less studied pest species. The model includes 34 variables which represent different conditions that are related to pest outbreaks, with 26 of these parameters being climatic variables.

With a user-friendly application developed especially to fit the model, it becomes a useful tool for European forest managers and practitioners to forecast the outbreak of a pest, and take preventive measures in a timely manner, ensuring the aversion of both economic and ecological damages that are associated with pest outbreaks.

Access full conference proceedings paper here.